The Weekly Watchlist

What to look for on Election Day 2025

Several big elections on Tuesday are going to tell us a lot about how Americans are reacting to Trump II, and the government shutdown nears crisis level—for the people, not the politicians who made it.

They used to say all politics is local. But since Donald Trump came down that escalator in 2015, he has been the biggest issue in every American election, and in many others around the world. He is the dominant political figure of our time. And once again, in several states’ off-year elections, American voters will get a chance to check him or empower him—this time, to render a verdict on his presidency through local elections in which he is a focus of debate.

a) In New York City, something extraordinary is happening. Younger liberal voters—fiercely opposed to Trump and frustrated with a fossilized Democratic Party—are on the verge of electing State Assemblyman and democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani Mayor. If he defeats former NY Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, and GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa, as looks likely, it’s a game changer. I’ll be looking at the age gap in the numbers—it’ll be massive—and the Jewish vote, a key Democratic constituency deeply uneasy with Mamdani.

b) In Virginia’s race for Governor, Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger leads in polls against Republican Winsome Earl-Sears, the Lieutenant-Governor of the state. Earl-Sears is a MAGA candidate, and not a great one. If she gets close or even wins, that’s a very bad sign for the national Democratic Party. But I’ll be watching to see if Spanberger’s efforts in rural areas—where she has emphasized hospital closures, Medicaid access and economic pain—pay off.

c) In New Jersey’s gubernatorial election, Democratic Rep. Mikey Sherrill faces off against former state Rep. Jack Citarelli. This race is tighter; Sherrill has a slim lead. I’ll be paying close attention to suburban shifts in the North and Central regions of New Jersey—once solidly Democratic, they’re showing signs of fluidity, and that might signal trouble for the Democrats. Also, a drop-off in core Democratic strongholds like Camden, Newark, and Jersey City would reinforce the sense in Trump’s victory that working-class voters are moving to the GOP.

A couple of other stories I’m tracking this week:

On Wednesday, the biggest case of the Supreme Court’s term so far: has President Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the Constitution by tariffing…the world? It’s a great case—fundamental Constitutional law—and we will learn a lot about whether this Court will ever stand up to Trump (he had flirted with the idea of attending the arguments himself, but backed off). Read Amy Howe’s excellent preview on SCOTUSblog here, then listen to the arguments Wednesday 10:00AM EST here.

And a new book out on Tuesday I’m very interested in reading: The Age of Extraction: How Tech Platforms Conquered the Economy and Threaten Our Future Prosperity, by Tim Wu. To me, the Big Social Media is a beast devouring our economy, our politics, our souls. These corporate behemoths and their CEOs must be reined in. I’ll see what Tim Wu reports and recommends.

Go Bears!